Scientific Assessment of Effects of Changing Climate on Extreme Weather Events in North America
June 19, 2008
Source National Oceanic and Atmostpheric Administration,
United States Department of Commerce
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research today released a scientific assessment that provides the first comprehensive analysis of observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes in North America and U.S. territories. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change previously evaluated extreme weather and climate events on a global basis in this same context. However, there has not been a specific assessment across North America prior to this report.
Among the major findings reported in this assessment are that droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more commonplace as humans continue to increase the atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
The report is based on scientific evidence that a warming world will be accompanied by changes in the intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extent of weather and climate extremes.
"This report addresses one of the most frequently asked questions about global warming: what will happen to weather and climate extremes? This synthesis and assessment product examines this question across North America and concludes that we are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events.
"We will continue to see some of the biggest impacts of global warming coming from changes in weather and climate extremes,” said report co-chair Gerry Meehl, Ph.D., of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "This report focuses for the first time on changes of extremes specifically over North America."
The full CCSP 3.3 report, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, and a summary FAQ brochure are available online.
Global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases, according to the report. Many types of extreme weather and climate event changes have been observed during this time period and continued changes are projected for this century. Specific future projections include:
Abnormally hot days and nights, along with heat waves, are very likely to become more common. Cold nights are very likely to become less common.
Sea ice extent is expected to continue to decrease and may even disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades.
Precipitation, on average, is likely to be less frequent but more intense.
Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions.
Hurricanes will likely have increased precipitation and wind.
The strongest cold-season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights.
NOAA plays a key role in the Climate Change Science Program, which is responsible for coordinating and integrating climate research, observations, decision support, and communications of 13 federal departments and agencies.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research investigates climate, weather, and other topics related to the atmosphere. It is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by a nonprofit consortium of universities, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.
i've been speaking to a lot of ghosts recently there was one in the cafe this morning
a tortured soul i didnt see him until i had sat down by the window he sat there uncorked he'd been drinking in too much raw life and it showed he was cradling a coffee "it all goes " he said i stared back at him over my meal and nodded as he stirred his coffee "I was never in love " he said "with a woman nor money " i noticed raindrops on the window people walking silently by outside "but i worked hard " he said "for little reward" mersuad the cafe owner looked over at me questioningly
the cafe was normally as silent as the grave a temporary bolt hole for mortally wounded bohemians who no longer craved attention nor got it "yes, its very hard " i said mersaud lost interest "i wish i'd cared more about money " the ghost said a woman walked by outside with a pram
her child was asleep
cocooned in layers of wool " its easy to wish our lives away " i said he stirred his coffee thoughtfully "it used to be better " he said I didnt think it did but I agreed with him anyway he started to talk about his life how he'd ended up with nothing i never once saw him touch his coffee he just talked "i used to box in my teens " he said he had the face of a boxer who had taken too many blows
and lost too many fights
before realising he'd never win "i wish i'd cared more about money he said " i nodded but remembered it was summer solstice and i thought about how little we are taught about the natural timeline the movement of the planet the pull of gravity the turning of the seasons
the collapse of the stars
"its all about survival " he said "yes it is" I said" "i cared more about god " he said looking visibly angry " people with money care about nothing but themselves" "life is unfair " he said bitterly "you cant buy youth " "they just dont realise they are going to die too " i said " god is the only master" he said i didnt see the point of arguing
i wondered if he was really there
or a real ghost
i wondered was i just imagining him and talking to myself
mersaud would be too polite to say
but he continued to talk about how unfair life was
and how he had nothing left now but his god
he eventually stood up to go
"so are you ready for the eternal journey " i said "ready? "he said " I've nothing to pack"
New data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that artic ice is down to the levels seen in June 2007, an all time record year for ice loss. 2008 began with ice covering a larger area than at the beginning of 2007 and scientists are concerned that the thinness of the ice and the warming summers may result in faster ice loss than predicted and see ice free artic summers within 5 to 10 years .
Talking to the BBC , Julienne Stroeve from NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado said of this year's ice coverage : .
"We had a partial recovery. But the real issue is that most of the pack ice has become really thin, and if we have a regular summer now, it can just melt away,"
In March, Nasa reported that the area covered by sea ice was slightly larger than in 2007, but much of it consisted of thin floes that had formed during the previous winter. These are much less robust than thicker, less saline floes that have already survived for several years.
The first dire predictions were for ice-free Arctic summers by about 2080 but more recent computer models started forecasting ice free artic summers around 2030 to 2050. Then came the 2007 summer that saw Arctic sea ice shrink to the smallest extent ever recorded and by the end of 2007 one research group was forecasting ice-free summers by 2013.
"I think we're going to beat last year's record melt, though I'd love to be wrong," said Dr Stroeve.
"If we do, then I don't think 2013 is far off any more. If what we think is going to happen does happen, then it'll be within a decade anyway."
Last night Mervyn King the Govenor of the Bank of England sombrely announced to a City audience at the Mansion House that the UK faced the "most difficult economic challenge for two decades". This admission , which starkly contrasted with Prime Minister Gordon Brown's bullish denials and assurances of just months ago , came on the same day that energy industry watchers here predicted that average energy bills this winter would be 40% higher really putting the squeeze on people already struggling to cope with runaway food, fuel and commodity prices.
Mr King's speech highlighted the Bank's concern about inflation, now feared to be approaching a rate of 4 or 5 % with no real guarantee that it wont keep rising, and stalled or even negative growth.
The Bank of Engalnd Govenor also acknowledged that the less well off were taking the brunt of the rapidly deteriorating global economic situation however the Bank's anti inflationary policies look set to create even more misery for those struggling with their mortgages and dont offer much help to Britain's weakening housing market and its also a safe bet that rising prices will triger pay disputes and industrial action from the UK's massive public sector workforce,
Adrian Coles, of the Building Societies' Association said it would be "the first time in about ten or twelve years that we've had no increase in real pay", prompting him to conclude that "people are really going to notice a difference in the economic environment".
The UK is hurtling towards another Winter of Discontent.
This could soon become a common complaint within marriages as a recent survey conducted by Harris Interactive found that more people are meeting their partners online than at their place of work , at parties or through mutual friends , particularly amongst the over 45 group.
The online survey carried out for online dating service e-Harmony involved more than 10,000 people who married in the US during an 18-month period in 2006 and 2007.
Nineteen per cent of the couples met online, according to the survey, compared with 17 per cent who met at work and 17 per cent who met through friends. A similar poll of almost 5000 couples who married between September 2004 and August 2005 found that 14 per cent met online, compared with 20 per cent at work and 17 per cent through friends.
In the current survey, 31 per cent of married couples aged 45 to 54 met online, against 18 per cent of 20 to 44-year-olds.
But before you rush off find your ideal partner online remember that the divorce rate in the US is currently about 50% , online divorces are on the up and up and the longevity of human relationships of all kinds is at an all time low.
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